Month: April 2016

Canadian Mining Speculation

By T.H. Mitchell

Have you ever thought that the junior resource market might be manipulated? T.H. Mitchell says it is, and that you need to speculate in the market like the professionals if you want to be successful. Originally written in 1957, Canadian Mining Speculation is a book about the factors at play in the marketing of junior mining sector companies. While the book is old and some concepts are no longer relevant, Mitchell has some great words of wisdom for the reader. If you can find a copy, I recommend this one.

Mitchell argues that the junior market is dominated by professionals, and when ignorant of this fact, the average investor is destined to lose money. He defines professionals as those who consistently make profits within the sector (professionals, he claims, comprise 10% of the total buying/selling market), not necessarily those whose actual profession is somehow related to the stock market.

Professional Methods

Mitchell outlines 4 methods that professionals use to make profits, which I’ve outlined below. The fifth, propaganda, is used in conjunction with each of the first three methods as a way to sell the shares that the group has used to raise the price:

• Mark-Up Method – The professional group controls all of the floating share supply. Members within the group trade with each other, raising the price incrementally over a period of time. Once there is a significant enough margin for the group, promotion can be used to bring the general public into the stock.

• Fast-Rise Method – With this method, a rise in price is guaranteed, as the group buys up all of the available stock at market prices. The professionals will typically use this method if the stock is near a bottom and they have a significant enough cash position to buy all of the market orders. Once they have established a major position in the stock, they can begin promoting to the average investor, who will come in near the end to buy at the highest price!

• Slow-Rise Method – Much like the ‘Mark-Up Method,’ the group buys the stock – but only at reasonable prices. The result is a steady rise in price that’s then used to slowly bring in the public.

• Special Recommendation Method – This method can show up in a variety of ways, but is best characterized by the group paying for promotion from influential people, publications or websites. The marketing typically deals with ‘special situations’ and evokes an emotional response in the average investor, where they can’t help but buy into the hype.

“The speculator must take the attitude that all price movements are manipulations by the professional operators. This is not true, but to be on the safe side the speculator must operate as if it were…All news releases are promotion, all price changes are manipulations and all important discoveries are basically unimportant…pessimistic thinking…opposite of the optimistic public – can they expect to be a successful speculator over the long pull”
(Mitchell, Canadian Mining Speculation, 87).

“Sentiment makes prices, and professionals make sentiment; thus, professional operators make the prices” (Mitchell, Canadian Mining Speculation, 90).

“Anyone who intends on engaging in a speculative investment in the junior mining sector had better resign themselves to playing the game as the professionals do, for to run counter is to invite disaster” (Mitchell, Canadian Mining Speculation, 104).

Market Manipulation..?

The prospect of market manipulation is scary; it really makes you question whether you can make money if it’s rigged. Whether or not you agree with Mitchell about the manipulation, however, I tend to agree that if you take a somewhat defensive (pessimistic) posture, you’re less susceptible to the sector’s inherent pitfalls.

I’m not sure about the first 3 methods that Mitchell outlines, but I know the fourth is definitely used. Promotion is great when you’re on the right side of it, but it can evoke frustration or even jealousy when you’ve missed out on an opportunity. I think that chasing the promotional stories instead of searching for the quality companies is a dangerous road to travel. Stick to the basics of junior resource stock investing and ignore the hype – until it works in your favour and then you can enjoy it!

Worthy of a Place on Your Bookshelf

Canadian Mining Speculation may change the way you look at the junior market, or if nothing else, it will make you question your current beliefs in the system. Regardless of what side of the manipulation argument you stand on, I think Mitchell gives the reader a lot of sensible advice for successful speculation, which is ultimately what everyone wants. This is one to add to your list of must-reads.

Have a book review you’d like to share with the rest of the Junior Stock Review community? Get in touch with me via the contact form or you can reach me at juniorstockreview@gmail.com.

Until next time,

Brian

*Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this post are based on my experiences and should not be taken as financial/investing advice.

Like investing in junior companies, brokers and the people who write newsletters will play a large role in the value you take away, or in other words, how successful you are in the markets. Go for the best in the business, it’s well worth the money, but it isn’t as easy as picking a product with a great reputation, you’ve got to pick the product that’s best for you.

Over the years, my investing approach has gone through many permutations but I’ve finally found the one that works the best for me. My aim for this post is to share some ideas for how you, too, can discover the financial products that are right for you, without wasting as much time and money as I did.

Narrowing Your Search

There are a few questions you should ask yourself to help narrow the list of options for financial products:

1. Am I going to rely on the broker or newsletter writer to choose and track my investments, or am I going to do this myself?

Brokerages and newsletter writers have a lot of people and information at their disposal, which is put to good use when they choose and track their stock picks. In many of his speeches, Rick Rule has said, “you must be willing to put in an hour per company, per week, at a minimum, to properly pick and track a company.” Most junior company portfolios consist of at least 10 stocks, which translates to 10 hours a week. Do you have that kind of time? In the beginning, I thought I could do this. I tried, but working full time and taking this on in my spare time while my young children ran around me wasn’t practical, nor was it consistently effective.

2. Is the broker or newsletter author’s outlook on investing or speculating similar to mine?

I had a bad experience with this one, and it was entirely my fault. In mid 2013, I decided to hire a broker to manage some of my investments, for a number of reasons that I will cover later on. I’d been around the resource space long enough to be familiar with a lot of the players in the resource brokerage business, and chose the firm with which I wanted to work. After completing all of the paperwork, I was set up with a broker whom I met to review how my money would be invested. After this meeting, I left feeling completely deflated; the broker had a totally different outlook on the market than I did, not only from a macro outlook, but also from a junior company perspective. He didn’t want anything to do with the juniors and I had specifically chosen that brokerage because I wanted to invest in the junior market. I bit my tongue and let him invest my money as he saw fit. The consequence was that I was never happy with the outcome. Finally, in the summer of 2014, I asked to work with someone else, and from that first phone call with the new broker, I couldn’t have been happier. Our risk outlooks were very similar; he loves the juniors and is, in my opinion, very adept at picking stocks. I should have made the change earlier!

3.What is my risk appetite? Am I okay with potentially losing it all?

Your risk appetite is something that you really need to define, because speculation in the junior market is risky business and shouldn’t be taken lightly. Mistakes will cost you.

4. How much money do you have to invest?

Many experts suggest holding a portfolio of several junior companies to combat the risk of putting all of your eggs in one basket. Considering the risk level and the odds of success, when you get a winner you really want to make it count. Give this some thought. Is buying $100 worth of a junior, hitting a 10-bagger and selling the position for $1000 really worth it? The cheaper letters typically cover the larger CAP companies, which make them a better choice for those with smaller cash positions, as you don’t necessarily need to spread your risk as much as with the juniors.

5. How much do I want to spend on the product?

This question is tied in with the size of your portfolio; if I have $5000 to invest and the newsletter I’m considering costs $1000, I’m 20% in the hole before I even start. For the top newsletters, maybe this isn’t a problem, as they give you the best chance to succeed. But, I’m still not convinced this is the best product for you to buy. I would be looking in the $100 to $200 range, supplemented with library late fees!

6. How many others are getting the same advice?

Typically, the more money that you spend on advice, the smaller the audience is for that advice. This is a huge advantage as you aren’t competing with as many speculators for the same stock, when buying or selling. A lot of companies that have multiple tiers in their products will piggy-back stock picks, meaning the highest payers get in first and then each level gets their chance accordingly. This is a situation where being on the right side of a promotion can really help.

Product Example

Casey Research is a great example for these questions as they have a line of products at different price points and risk levels. For instance, for the entry level speculator, they have Casey Resource Investor which covers large MCAP resource companies that have much lower risk levels than the juniors and the newsletter cost is only around $100.

Their mid-level newsletter is the International Speculator, which covers junior resource companies. The risk level is significantly higher and so is the cost, coming in at $2000. However, the upside potential of the returns is much higher.

Finally, they have their ALERT service, which doesn’t have a set issue schedule and is released as the editor, Louis James, finds great opportunities – all be it, very risky ones. His picks can range from micro CAP explorers to large MCAP companies. Last time I checked, the ALERT service topped out at $5000, which is definitely on the high side for newsletters, or at least the newsletters with which I’m familiar.

Things to consider: If I’m going to spend $5000 on a newsletter, I better have a large enough cash position to make it worth my while to spend that much for advice. On the other hand, you are buying the newsletter company’s best ideas and sharing them with a much smaller audience. My experience is that you usually get what you pay for. In this specific instance, I’m not saying that Casey’s letters are good or bad, they just illustrate the point I’m trying to make. There’s a lot of choice, pick what is going to work for you and know what to expect from the money that you spend.

Remember, be very selective in who you let into your circle of influence, pick the best people and products for you. You may not find the right formula without some less than ideal learning experiences along the way, and that’s fine, just persevere and figure out what works – you don’t want to miss the bull market!

If you have any experiences or formulas for successful speculation in the junior resource sector that you would like to share, please let me know, and I’ll feature it in a post. You can reach me via the contact us form or send me an email at juniorstockreview@gmail.com. Also, I can be found on CEO.ca with the handle @Leni.

Until next time,

Brian

Rickards’ Best Yet: Get the Goods on Gold in this Short, Value-Packed Book

For those who have never read a book written by James Rickards before, you’re in for a treat. In my opinion, he’s at his best in the newly released, The New Case for Gold. Now, if you have read one of Rickards’ books before, you know that they often run over 300 pages – not something you can easily rip through in a couple of evenings after work. The New Case for Gold, however, is a value packed 170 pages with his thesis organized into 6 concise chapters, making it something you could dig into on your lunch break.

Accessible Investing Knowledge & News

There’s something to be said for the length of a book, newsletter or other investment resource, how easy it is to get through it, and if you can take what you learned and easily apply it or put it into action. That stuff matters, because at the end of the day, why spend the money on investment tools that take you 6 months to get through (if you ever finish them) and the only action they see is when you use them as coasters? Not to say that short is always better, because there are a lot of resources that are concise and still not worth the paper they’re printed on. What I’m saying is try to choose the resources that are going to best compliment your learning style, time constraints and interests. But, I’m getting sidetracked…

Gold Investing Newcomers Will Appreciate This Book

I really enjoyed this book, but having read many of Rickards’ other books, I didn’t feel I learned anything I hadn’t heard before. For anyone new to investing in gold, on the other hand, the book is a real asset because he’s assembled all of the best information concerning his thesis for gold investment in one concisely written book – I’m highlighting the brevity of this book because it’s somewhat of an anomaly for Rickards. Those who have read their share of monetary books, such as myself, may not discover anything earth shattering in The New Case for Gold, but if you’re looking for information to confirm if you’re investing correctly, this a great source.

Gold Is Money

Rickards cuts to the chase and gives the thesis for the book early in the introduction:

“Gold is money…monetary standards based on gold are possible, even desirable, and in the absence of an official gold standard, individuals should go on a personal gold standard, by buying gold, to preserve wealth.”
~Rickards, The New Case for Gold, 2

Rickards uses 6 chapters to explain his case for gold as money and why you need to make it a part of your personal investment portfolio. These chapters are titled:

Gold and the Fed – A look at US monetary policy past, present and future.

Gold is Money – A history of gold in the world monetary system and a look at what gold isn’t and why that’s a good thing.

“Understanding gold provides us with a frame of reference for understanding the future in the international monetary system” (Rickards, 56).

These ideas and facts are the reasons I first started investing in gold. They have since led me to the junior mining sector, where the ultimate leverage to the gold price exists.

Gold is Insurance – A look into the mathematical side of the world economy and the theory used to model it.

Gold is Constant – A look at the gold price and why you should change your perspective from the gold price rising and falling to the currency price rising and falling in relation to gold.

If you follow Rickards’ arguments in the previous chapters then this one won’t be difficult to wrap your head around.

“July 2015, China updated its official gold reserves…to show 1,658 tons…up from 1,054 tons in 2009” (Rickards, 92).

China’s assent into the world economic powerhouses will be predicated on its acceptance into the International Monetary Fund’s basket of currencies that back the world currency – the SDR (Special Drawing Rights). To do this, gold will play a major role in supporting the Reminibi (Yuang), thus the major push for gold consumption. China is not only the world’s largest producer (it consumes all production), but also the largest importer. Rickards believes that the Chinese gold holding is much higher:

“China’s figures are deceptively low…there are perhaps 3,000 additional tons…in an agency called the State Adminstration of Foreign Exchange” (Rickards, 92).

Gold is Resilient – A comparison of gold to the other mainstream investment vehicles of the world, mainly America’s stock exchanges, and why you are at risk for holding your wealth electronically.

This may be the least discussed topic outside of the ‘conspiracy theory’ realm of commentary, but it’s something that I believe people should take much more seriously as our lives become more and more digitized!

“As a 21st century investor, I don’t want all of my wealth in digital form…I want part of it in a tangible form, such as gold” (Rickards, 147).

How to Acquire Gold – A summary of all the ways you can invest in gold.

I think most of us are fairly familiar with many of the ways to invest in gold; purchase physical bullion, shares in ETFs such as GLD, Sprott Physical Trusts, mining stock shares and international storage banks such as Gold Money. It is, however, interesting to read the pluses and minuses that Rickards’ attributes each of the various ways to invest in gold – check them out!

Collapse. Yup, As In The Collapse Of The World Economy

Ultimately, Rickards believes the world economy is headed for collapse with a major monetary crisis forcing the world’s powers into a third major meeting to sort out a solution:

“When the next collapse comes, there will be another meeting such as those held in Genoa in 1922 and Bretton Woods in 1944” (Rickards, 43).

To weather this coming storm, Rickards encourages a conservative 10%, of investable assets, allocation in gold. With the ideas and facts laid out in this book, you must ask yourself “what are the new rules of the game and how can I survive it?”

Famously, the late Richard Russell used to say, “in times like this, it isn’t who profits the most, it is who loses the least.” If that truly is the case, we’re in for a bumpy road, one that the majority of the population is NOT ready for! Are you?

Is This The Gold Book You’ve Been Looking For?

For those who are new to the gold thesis and want to improve their knowledge of the metal, this is a great place to start because you won’t find another book that describes the case for gold so succinctly without glossing over any points that are necessary to the argument. Like I said, if you’ve been at the gold game for a while, you shouldn’t expect to unlock any new secrets while reading Rickards’ latest, but at 170 pages, this is a book you can add to your collection and return to any time you’re looking to reaffirm your stance on gold.

Until next time,

Brian